Joe Roxstrom

So will the Thanksgiving holiday have turned out to be a boom or bust for Beverage Alcohol? Numbers are just starting to come in, but it looks to me that macro economic pressures in food & housing pulled wine & spirits volumes down again for the full month. The hoped-for Thanksgiving bump may not have happened, even with relatively easy comps from 2024. Heading into November spirits volumes and revenues were continuing to decrease month-over-month, with revenues declining faster than volumes, which isn't the sign of a healthy market. Revenues decreasing faster than sales means any of the following may be going on: - Lower average selling price (definitely seeing a few brands reducing frontline pricing) - Discounts or promotions increasing (there are some deeper deals out there to entice consumers) - Trade-down to cheaper pack sizes (this is for sure as only sizes showing growth are 50ml & 200ml) - Mix shifting from premium to value brands (as price tiers are declining across all spirits ex-RTDs I think that trade down into smaller sizes is a bigger issue than mix shifting). So if Thanksgiving turns out to have given us a less-than-ideal main course what do brands need to do for the last three weeks of December to try to land a decent end to the year? - Lean into smaller sizes on prioriity brands in off-premise - Attractive pricing and combo deals (2 fors, etc.) that entice bargain shoppers - Drive liquid to lips (where legal) with an aggressive sampling program to capture incremental & impulse dollars on premium products - Set a realistic plan for 2026 knowing that volumes and revenue are not likely to recover Yes, you might take a temporary margin hit, bank lower GP, or increase your trade spend as a % of sales but we have to weather the storm. What did you see during Thanksgiving, especially at retail?

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Brown-Forman Forecasts 2026 Revenue & Profit Drop; Shares Plunge 15% Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF-B), maker of Jack Daniel’s, Woodford Reserve and Old Forester, warned investors yesterday that fiscal 2026 organic net sales and operating income will both decline in the low single digits. The guidance follows a 7% drop in Q3 (ended April 30) sales to US $894 million—well below analyst estimates of US $967 million—and earnings per share of US $0.31, missing the US $0.34 consensus. As a result, Brown-Forman’s shares fell 15% in early trading. Why it matters... Brown-Forman’s weak top-line warns that even iconic brands like Jack Daniel’s cannot fully insulate themselves from tightening consumer wallets. Brand teams must recalibrate marketing spend and consider targeted promotions to sustain demand. A 15 % stock drop signals channel partners to reforecast orders and negotiate terms. Off-premise buyers may shift to lower-price-point offerings or no/low-alcohol SKUs as mainstream premium spirits slow. TL/DR: When a premium-spirits stalwart like Brown-Forman flags a multi-year profit decline, it’s a sign of broader market headwinds—from consumer belt-tightening to tariff-driven cost pressures. Companies that diversify portfolios and reinforce cost discipline now will emerge stronger.

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As usual, another brilliant piece from Ross Colbert, CMG's head of Food and Beverage, on his take aways from ExpoWest...

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General Mills’ quarter wasn’t about results — it was about reset. ▶️ FY26 is being used to rebuild volume, not protect margins ▶️ North America Retail returned to organic volume growth ▶️ Brand investment is rising as pricing resets take hold 🗣️ “Delivering greater remarkability to consumers is the key to restoring organic sales growth.” — Jeff Harmening, CEO 🗣️ “We are reinvesting efficiency savings to fund growth.” — Kofi Bruce, CFO ⬇️ Full earnings-call breakdown and what to watch next — link in comments 🔔 Follow Alphasumer for more content like this. #CPG #FoodAndBeverage #Earnings #Stocks #ConsumerStaples #CompanyPerformance #InvestorRelations

Hershey beat first-quarter earnings estimates as GLP-1 drug use drove demand for mints and healthier snacks. CEO Kirk Tanner said adoption of GLP-1 drugs helped lift Ice Breakers retail sales 8%, with users turning to mints and chewing gum to fend off Ozempic breath caused by reduced saliva or nausea. Hershey calls the shift functional snacking and says it’s shaping product innovation. Organic volumes in North America salty snacks rose 5%, with a 20-percentage-point contribution from LesserEvil popcorn and seed-oil-free snacks, which Hershey acquired last year. Protein bar sales were up 17%, helping quarterly revenue climb over 10%. North America confectionery volumes fell 4%, following a 5% decline in Q4 2025. The company reiterated annual sales and profit growth targets. - World Business News.

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